基于BBWM-云模型的暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价研究
首发时间:2023-03-10
摘要:为了预防突降暴雨对施工现场造成安全事故,本研究采用了贝叶斯最优最劣法(BBWM)和云模型方法,提出了暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价模型,以确定施工现场在遭受暴雨灾害时的风险等级。该模型利用了压力--状态--响应模型(PSR)和灾害系统理论,在考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体脆弱性和减灾能力抵御性等四方面的基础上,构建了18个风险因素的施工现场风险评价指标体系。本研究以武汉市某施工现场为例进行验证,结果表明,施工现场的减灾能力抵御性处于最重要的地位,做好现场的减灾措施对应对灾害有非常重要的帮助。案例项目的评价结果处于一般风险状态,和现场实际情况相符。该研究结果对建设项目应对暴雨灾害提供了工具,具有一定的实际应用价值。
关键词: 暴雨灾害 施工现场 风险评价 云模型 贝叶斯最优最劣法(BBWM)
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Research on risk assessment for building construction sites under heavy rain disasters based on BBWM-Cloud Model
Abstract:In order to prevent safety accidents caused by sudden heavy rainfalls on construction sites, this study used the Bayesian Best Worst Method (BBWM) and cloud model method to propose a risk assessment model for construction sites during heavy rainfall disasters, in order to determine the risk level of construction sites in the face of heavy rainfalls. The model utilized the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and disaster system theory, and based on considering the danger of the causative factors, the stability of the disaster-prone environment, the vulnerability of the disaster-stricken body, and the resilience of disaster reduction capabilities, constructed an evaluation indicator system consisting of 18 risk factors for construction site risk assessment. The model was verified using a construction site in Wuhan during a heavy rainfall disaster. The results showed that the disaster reduction capabilities of the construction site were the most important, and that effective disaster reduction measures were crucial for responding to disasters. The evaluation result of the case project was in the normal risk state, which was consistent with the actual situation on site. The results of this study provide a tool for construction projects to respond to heavy rainfall disasters and have practical value for their application.
Keywords: heavy rain disasters building construction sites risk assessment Cloud model Bayesian best worst method(BBWM)
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基于BBWM-云模型的暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价研究
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